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CWA # 237, 2 March 2020
South Asia
Small countries in the SAARC: Will they succeed in reviving regional cooperation?

  Rohej Khatiwada

One could see India’s excitement towards the SAARC when PM Modi invited SAARC leaders in his oath-taking ceremony in 2014. After a series of disagreements with Islamabad, New Delhi started to change its focus towards an alternative regional forum (BIMSTEC) to bypass Pakistan.

The Sad Story of SAARC
The small countries of the region are putting efforts to revive the SAARC. The current chair Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are putting continuous efforts for the revival of the regional organization. However, India being the biggest member of the region is looking at BIMSTEC as an alternative to the SAARC. The regional organization failed to organize its 19th summit which was scheduled for 2016. It has a provision that they should organize the summit every two years, but it has been six years since the last summit was held in Kathmandu in 2014. Despite continuous efforts by small countries, the organization is almost paralyzed since 2016. 

Recently, Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, during his visit to India, brought the issue of the revival of the SAARC to light. He said in an interview with The Hindu, “I couldn’t discuss the SAARC process with [PM Modi], as I know that India is not very interested in the summit, especially since the next meeting is due to be held in Pakistan. I do believe that we have already gone a considerable distance with building SAARC and that should be continued”. On 8th December 2019, at the occasion of the 35th SAARC Charter day, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa also emphasized on the importance of the SAARC. Addressing the charter day event at Colombo he said that South Asian countries are facing common problems and collective efforts are necessary to fight these problems. Bangladesh is also showing its desire for the reactivation of the SAARC. In November 2019, addressing the WEF India summit in Delhi, PM Seikh Hasina said that for the economic growth of the region, it is necessary to increase the regional efforts. She suggested that countries of the region should enhance mutual trust and respect. 

Resurrection attempts by Nepal 
Nepal, who is chairing the SAARC from 2014, has taken several initiatives for the reactivation of the organization. Recently, it proposed to organize an informal summit in April as the sideline meeting of Sagarmatha Sambad. Nepal has already invited all heads of governments of the region for a conference on climate change but the sideline meeting is yet to be confirmed. The chairing country had already called the informal meeting of the foreign ministers of the region in New York on 25th September, where the ministers gathered for the UN General assembly. Sadly, the meeting could not make any progress to end the deadlock. Indian foreign minister left the meeting when his Pakistani counterpart was speaking and the Pakistani foreign minister also did the same. Similarly, in January 2020, the PTI reported that Nepal offered to mediate Indo-Pak dialogue to reduce the tension between these two countries. Nepal's proposal came at a time when the bilateral tension was at its climax triggered by the Kashmir issue. However, neither India nor Pakistan responded to the proposal. 

Nepal PM KP Oli is frequently speaking about the reactivation of the SAARC, and calling members to work seriously to reduce differences. On the occasion of the Charter Day, Nepal PM KP Sharma Oli, who is heading the SAARC now, addressed a program at SAARC Secretariat, Kathmandu. He said that he is eagerly waiting to handover the chairmanship to Pakistan. He called the member countries to reduce the tension through dialogue and create an environment for the SAARC Summit. It is understandable that this statement was directed towards India and Pakistan.

The India- Pakistan Equation
Pakistan failed to organize the 19th summit, scheduled for 2016. India decided to boycott the summit blaming that Pakistan was responsible for the Uri terrorist attack, which resulted in the killing of 16 Indian soldiers in Kashmir 2016. Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Afghanistan also supported India’s move to boycott the summit. The Indo-Pak relation is not improved enough after the Uri attack to reinitiate the summit of the organization in Pakistan. Indian decision to end the autonomous status of Kashmir added fuel to the fire. Therefore, the Islamabad Summit of SAARC seems not possible in the near future.

In the midst of the tension with India, Pakistan is seeking help from the small countries to end the deadlock of the SAARC. It wants Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka to create more pressure on India. Last week, Amjad Hussain B Sial, who returned to Pakistan after he handed over the general secretary to Sri Lanka, met President, PM and other and requested Nepal to end the deadlock of the regional body. In March 2018, Pak PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi visited Kathmandu and discuss on the revival of the SAARC with PM Oli. Imran Khan's Foreign Minister Mohamood Qureshi called his Nepali counterpart after India ended the autonomous status of Kashmir and urged to play a role as chair of the SAARC. There are several other occasions where Pakistan requested to create an environment for the SAARC Summit. 

But the Pakistani lobby and the effort of Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are not succeeding to get the attention of India. India is denying to take part in Islamabad Summit, blaming that Pakistan is funding cross-border terrorism. India did not change its position from 2016. Instead of giving attention to the small countries’ effort, India is focusing on BIMSTEC, another regional forum comprising of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Thailand bypassing Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Maldives. 

The Shift in India’s focus
One could see India’s excitement towards the SAARC when PM Modi invited SAARC leaders in his oath-taking ceremony in 2014. After a series of disagreements with Pakistan, it started to change its focus towards an alternative regional forum in order to bypass Pakistan. The initial clue of this change was seen during the 2016 Goa BRICS summit where Modi invited BIMSTEC leaders. In continuation, PM Modi gave preferences to the BIMSTEC leaders over SAARC leaders, on his oath-taking ceremony after being reelected in 2019. The statement of the Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar indicates that India sees BIMSTEC as the alternate of the SAARC. On his first public appearance as foreign minister in June 2019, he said that SAARC has problems and BIMSTEC has full energy to move forward.

When the leaders of Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are putting more effort into the revival of the SAARC, India is busy strengthening BIMSTEC issues. India is blaming Pakistan for the deadlock of the SAARC but reluctant to discuss the possible solution. The SAARC has a provision of the unanimity of all the members while taking any decision. Hence, it can’t organize its summit if a member country decided not to participate. It seems almost impossible for the SAARC to move forward without India's interest. Despite the continuous efforts of the small countries of the region, it doesn’t seem that they will succeed to revive the SAARC.

Rohej Khatiwada is a scholar at the UMISARC, Pondicherry University 

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